This paragraph from the @NWSNorman 4:34 AM CDT March 22 2023 Area Forecast Discussion certainly hits the spot when it comes to Thursday’s severe weather potential. Void of hyperbole, this is very wise expert advice that speaks for itself.
ONE THING TO NOTE: THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND
DEFINITELY SOME SEVERE WEATHER "FAILURE" MODES IN PLAY. ANY OF THE
STORMS THAT REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE FORCING FOCUS MAY RESULT IN A
FAIRLY MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DECREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THERE'S ALSO THE CONSIDERATION OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
STORMS THAT MAY CREATE WHAT I LIKE TO CALL "SURFACE BOUNDARY
COLLISION FUNTIME" AND HELPING WITH THE MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE.
LONG STORY SHORT: WE'LL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE TRENDS WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT, THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION, AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVES TO GET A BETTER
IDEA ON WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.