Quarterly Essays on Weather, Climate, and Historical weather Events
March 2026
Why This Winter Felt the Way It Did (And What That Says About Climate Change)
Introduction: Winter’s End, But Not Its Lessons
March 1st marks the beginning of meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere, a milestone that signals winter is finally winding down. Of course, if you live in the northern states or Canada, you know that calendar dates don’t always match reality. Many places will see winter conditions for weeks to come, with snowstorms and freezing temperatures still very much in the forecast.
But as we transition out of winter, it’s worth taking a step back and asking: What just happened? This past winter was a study in contrasts. Some regions experienced brutal cold snaps that felt like something out of the past. Others saw record warmth and barely any snow at all. And if you’ve been anywhere near social media, you’ve probably seen the debates: “See? Global warming is a hoax!” versus “This is exactly what climate change looks like!”
Here’s the thing: Both the cold and the warm are part of the same story, a story about how our climate is changing in ways that affect us all, regardless of where we live. Understanding why this winter felt the way it did, and what it tells us about the future, isn’t just about winning arguments. It’s about seeing the world clearly, so we can prepare for what’s coming.
Let’s break down why this winter felt the way it did, what the data actually shows, and what it all means for our changing climate.
- Your Brain Is Playing Tricks on You (And That’s Normal)
Human memory is a funny thing. When it comes to weather, we don’t remember the long-term average, we remember what felt unusual. Scientists call this recency bias, and it’s one of the most powerful forces shaping how we think about climate【4,7】.
Here’s how it works: Your brain doesn’t compare today’s temperature to a century of data. It compares it to what you experienced 2-8 years ago, especially the past 2-4 years【4】. If the last few winters were mild, which they increasingly have been across most of the U.S.【24,27】, then this year’s cold snap hits harder. It feels more extreme because your mental baseline shifted.
This is called shifting baseline syndrome【35,42】. Each generation grows up accepting whatever environmental conditions they experience as “normal,” even if those conditions represent a dramatic change from the past. So when temperatures swing back toward historical averages, or when we get an extreme cold event, it feels shocking, not because it’s actually colder than the past, but because we’ve gotten used to warmer.
Why should skeptics care? Because this same psychological quirk cuts both ways. If your brain can make you think it’s colder than it is, it can also make you miss the bigger warming trend. Data shows that winters are warming faster than any other season in most of the U.S.【24,28】. But we don’t feel that warming as clearly as we feel a single cold week.
- A Warming Planet Can Create Brutal Cold Snaps
Now here’s where the climate science gets really interesting: The cold snap you experienced isn’t evidence against climate change. In many cases, it’s a consequence of it.
The culprit is something called the polar vortex, a ring of strong winds high in the atmosphere that normally keeps cold Arctic air bottled up near the North Pole. When the polar vortex is strong, most of us enjoy mild winters. But when it weakens or gets disrupted, that cold air spills southward into places like the U.S. and Europe【17,21】.
And here’s the connection to climate change: The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet【17】. That rapid warming can destabilize the polar vortex through a process called stratospheric warming, where warm air pushes into the stratosphere and disrupts the circulation patterns. When that happens, the jet stream (the river of air that guides weather systems) gets wavy and distorted, allowing Arctic air to plunge south【14,16,17】.
This winter saw exactly that scenario play out. Multiple stratospheric warming events in late 2025 and early 2026 disrupted the polar vortex, sending waves of cold air across North America【14,16,21】. It’s not a fluke, it’s physics.
Why should skeptics care? Because extreme weather goes both ways. If you’re concerned about harsh winters, you should care about the atmospheric changes driving them. And if you think climate science is overblown, ask yourself: Why are climate models successfully predicting these cold snaps weeks in advance based on Arctic conditions?
- The Data Tells a Different Story Than a Single Cold Week
Step back from any individual winter, and the trend is unmistakable. Since 1970, average winter temperatures have risen across most of the U.S., particularly in northern regions【24,27】. Freezing nights are becoming less common. Snow seasons are shorter. And the winter of 2024-2025 saw Alaska experience temperatures 6.9°F warmer than its seasonal average【28】.
This doesn’t mean cold snaps disappear. It means they’re becoming rarer and less severe on average, even as individual events can still be intense【26】. Think of it like this: The planet isn’t erasing winter, it’s turning down the volume, with occasional loud spikes.
Why should skeptics care? Because agriculture, water supply, and infrastructure all depend on predictable seasonal patterns. Warmer winters aren’t just about comfort, they affect everything from crop yields to pest populations to energy demand【24】. If you care about food prices, water availability, or your local economy, these trends matter.
- What You Can Do (And Why It Matters)
Understanding how our brains process temperature, and how climate change affects winter weather, isn’t just academic. It’s about seeing the world clearly, so we can make better decisions.
Here’s what you can do:
- Check the data yourself. NOAA, NASA, and Climate Central all provide free, publicly accessible temperature records. Don’t trust your memory, trust the measurements.
- Learn about your local climate. How have winters changed where you live? The trends might surprise you.
- Stay curious. The science of climate and weather is constantly improving. Follow trusted sources that explain how we know what we know, not just what we know.
Conclusion: Feeling vs. Knowing
This winter’s cold snap was real. Your discomfort was real. But so is the long-term warming trend, the disruption of the polar vortex, and the psychological quirks that make it hard for us to perceive gradual change.
Climate change doesn’t mean the end of winter. It means winters are becoming less predictable, more variable, and on average, warmer. Understanding that doesn’t require you to change your politics or your worldview. It just requires you to look at the evidence with clear eyes.
The question isn’t whether you felt cold this winter. The question is whether you’re willing to look beyond that feeling to see what’s actually happening to our climate and what we can do about it.
References
【4】Moore, F. C., Obradovich, N., Lehner, F., & Baylis, P. (2019). Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(11), 4905-4910. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1816541116
【7】Carmichael, J. T., & Brulle, R. J. (2021). The role of personal experience and prior beliefs in shaping climate change perceptions: A narrative review. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 669911. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.669911/full
【14】Severe Weather Europe. (2026). Stratospheric Warming 2026: The Polar Vortex Split Meets a Massive Atmospheric Wave over North America. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratospheric-warming-2026-polar-vortex-forecast-atmospheric-mjo-interference-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa
【16】Severe Weather Europe. (2026). Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-february-2026-stratospheric-warming-forecast-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa
【17】BBC Science Focus Magazine. (2026). Why do we still get major snowstorms in a warming world? https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/us-winter-storm-polar-vortex-climat-change
【21】Severe Weather Europe. (2026). Polar Vortex 2026 Update: New Stratospheric Warming Detected, Winter Shift Likely in January. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/new-stratospheric-warming-january-2026-polar-vortex-disruption-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa
【24】Climate Central. (2025). 2025 Winter Package. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/2025-winter-package
【26】Yale Climate Connections. (2025). Update: How’s U.S. winter weather changing in a warming world? https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/02/update-hows-u-s-winter-weather-changing-in-a-warming-world/
【27】Climate Central. (2025). Data: U.S. Winter Temperature Trends. https://www.climatecentral.org/data/data-winter-package
【28】Climate Central. (2025). People Exposed to Climate Change: December 2024 to February 2025. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/winter-2025-global-attribution
【35】National Geographic. (2025). 2024 was the hottest year ever—but it might be the coldest year of the rest of your life. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/shifting-baseline-syndrome-climate-change
【42】Soga, M., & Gaston, K. J. (2018). Shifting baseline syndrome: causes, consequences, and implications. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 16(4), 222-230. https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.1794
All links accessed by 26 February 2026.
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